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S & P/ Case Shiller Home Price Index predicts AZ homes prices to tumble another 10.8 percent by March 2011

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/fiserv-predicts-home-prices-to-drop-another-49-in-year-ahead-2010-07-29

Click on the link above to read the full article.

Holly Grigaitis, Associate Broker  928-300-5228  hollywoodaz@commspeed.net

 

FORECLOSURE, in the Greenbelt! Oak Creek Valley Subdivision

• 1,484 sq. ft., 2 bath, 3 bdrm single story - - Price to be determined

 -  Newer and nicely maintained and fully landscaped home located in gated community on the banks of Oak Creek ( Oak Creek Valley). Needs nothing but your personal touches to make it home. Community features pool and clubhouse. Features include newer appliances, vaulted ceilings, skylights, Central AC, recirculating hot water, ceiling fans, tile flooring, large open deck and in walking distance to Oak Creek. Split floor plan with great room.

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FORECLOSURE- Manufactured Home in Verde Village 3


FIXER UPPER

• 1,404 sq. ft., 2 bath, 4 bdrm single story - - Price To Be Determined

 -  Run the numbers and see how low the payment will be- yeah, whether buying for a home of your own or a rental unit, your gonna win, hands down- 3 bdrm with potential 4th ( needs completion of pony wall and closet door) in need of a few cosmetics (carpet, paint), but comes with an oversized, detached 1 car garage and carport, huge concrete patio, fenced backyard, newer laminate floor in living area. SOLD AS IS. NO repairs will be made by seller.

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2009-2010 Sedona/ Verde Valley Real Estate Market Update: Short Sale Explosion Ahead

I know it has been a long time since I have written a market update, or a newsletter for that matter!  Truth be told, Ken and I have been absolutely inundated with foreclosure/REO listings and sales.... And since, nearly ALL REO business is done on-line, we have literally eaten nearly every meal in front of the computer screen for the last 12 months. Crazy, crazy times-  what a wonderfully, horrible problem to have (Read:  Were hiring!).  But we do have much news to share with you now and in the coming months- so be on the lookout for updates to our blog, and updates in your mailbox. 

As you may already know, 2009 was a mixed year for area real estate:  To sum it up, sales were up a little, and prices were down a lot!.  Here's a quick snap shot of the activity in our area for the past several years.

Year     # of Sales        Dollar Volume

1996     1687              197,283,896
1997     1809              248,524,298
1998     1967              282,799,572
1999     2052              325,126,110
2000     2127              388,386,493
2001     2043              378,680,420
2002     2244              440,312,261
2003     2624              593,724,521
2004     3175              782,270,183
2005     3121              968,669,048
2006     1972              740,066,355
2007     1261              458,545,123
2008       952              310,587,417

2009     1192                328,421,118

Sedon Verde Valley Sales by Quarter 2006-Current

1st quarter  2006            567 closed sales
2nd quarter 2006            570 closed sales
3rd quarter  2006            561 closed sales
4th quarter  2006            358 closed sales
1st quarter  2007            314 closed sales
2nd quarter 2007            406 closed sales
3rd quarter  2007            304 closed sales
4th quarter  2007            234 closed sales
1st quarter  2008            203 closed sales
2nd quarter 2008            280 closed sales
3rd quarter  2008            242 closed sales
4th quarter  2008            222 closed sales
1st quarter 2009             180 closed sales                                                                                                                                                                   2nd quarter 2009            333 closed sales                                                                                                                                                                      3rd quarter 2009             337 closed sales                                                                                                                                                                       4th quarter 2009             347 closed sales                                                                                                                                                                       1st quarter 2010             346 closed sales

What’s important to note here is that while sales were up significantly in 2009, we are still not even close to “pre-bubble” activity, and no where near what would be considered normal activity for our area, but at least we are FINALLY heading in the right direction.

I began my real estate career in late 1997. The market was considered to be “normal” at that time– Agents counseled buyers to plan on owning their home for at LEAST 3-5 years before they would be able to resell and BREAK EVEN.   Just a few short years later, real estate owners became day traders as low interest loans and easy qualification fueled a drunken party of reckless investing, and unsustainable appreciation -  what a long, strange trip its been.

Out of the 1192 sales that occurred in Sedona and The Verde Valley in 2009, 1038 were home sales (of this, 530 were distressed sales:  438 Foreclosures, 92 Short Sales)138 (of this, 48 Were distress sales:  45 Foreclosures 3 Short Sales) were land sales and a whopping 16 commercial sales occurred during the calendar year in the Verde Valley.  If you have real estate to sell in the Verde Valley, you better hope it has a HOUSE on it, and know that half of your competition is a home in distress!

Finally it would appear as if our nation’s financial system ( Read: Wall Street) has some semblance of stability once again-  14 months ago, the economy was literally teetering on the edge of a great abyss, but large injections of cash from the Fed were the paddles that shocked the system, and brought it back from seeing the great white light.  Whether you agree with the bailout or not, the landscape today would certainly be a lot different without it.

Credit has loosened-  yes, it has.  Banks want to lend, they are just not finding enough credit-worthy individuals!  Before you chortle, remember, it was only 10 short years ago when you HAD to have 2 years of consistent job history, good credit history AND a low debt to income ratios to buy a house….  We have all been severely spoiled the last decade with banks doling out loans like drugs to an addict.

The National economy is slowly recovering and Arizona’s economy and real estate market will slowly recover as well, but while the country sees a more measurable improvement, AZ and a few other states will lag far behind and suffer a much longer convalescence.  Here’s why. 

  1. Arizona, along with CA, NV, FL are among 5 states that are responsible for 60% of the nation’s foreclosures-  we can expect foreclosures to be in  the forefront of the marketplace through 2011, and likely, beyond.  There are       currently about 1200 foreclosures scheduled to occur in Yavapai County in the next 90 days alone,.  That’s on top of the 1700+ foreclosures that are currently on the market, or will be very soon.
  2. Arizona went from number 2 in the Nation in job creation in 2005-2006, to 50th in 2009.  Ohio and Michigan are creating more jobs than AZ!  As a result, retail sales in AZ dropped a whopping 14% from 2008 to 2009, and an unbelievable total of 25% since the start of the recession.  Construction permits in Maricopa County are down 92.8%, and not too far off that number in Yavapai County-   Yavapai County issued 604 residential single family building permits in 2008 ( numbers are not yet available for 2009) – 4329 were issued in 2005, 3665 in 2004 . 
  3. Relocation to the state is down.  As retirees across the nation have faced dwindling home equity and depleted 401K’s, Arizona has lost her steady stream of new residents.  Growth, which was still a healthy 3.1% in 2007, has dwindled to about 1.3%-  AZ typically experiences about a 1% growth rate when we look only at births vs. deaths.

Everywhere the Arizona economy was strong:  Semiconductors, Construction, Tourism and Retirement/relocation, got slaughtered during the downturn, and it will likely be a few more years before we really notice a true recovery-  People need to move here again.  Distressed inventory AND excess inventory needs to be sold and cleared out of the pipeline.

So, have we seen a change in 2010?  Not yet.  As of 5/23,  our local association has closed 566 deals-  We are right on track to finish the year with a number of sales equal to 2009 numbers, but whether we will meet, beat  or lag behind of last years sales in the area, will depend largely on the fall out from the expiration of the tax credit, which may have “robbed” sales from the 3rd and 4th quarter.  It is still just too early to tell what impact the tax credit will have had on this years numbers. 

There is, however, a HUGE change in the national marketplace that is already in the wind and gaining steam with an amazing pace, and, it has the potential to help stabilize markets across the country much quicker than previously expected.  Thanks to some serious arm twisting of the Fed in the form of HAFA (Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives) and other changes in the marketplace, the banks are FINALLY starting to realize it is in their best interest to begin cooperating with homeowners who are upside down or in distress and accept Short Sales and Deeds in Lieu, rather than foreclosing.  Yes, really!   Homeowners may now be able to do a short sale or a deed in lieu WITHOUT destroying their credit.  Yes really! It may now be possible for investors to do short sales!  Yes, really!   You might be able to do a short sale and BUY a new home the very NEXT DAY!  Yes, really!!!!!!! 

If you are underwater on your mortgage, or you know someone who is, please get in touch with us so we can help  take advantage of new bank philosophies and policies or, be sure to catch future updates from us in the mail or on our blog! 

 

 

 

View lot in Village of Oak Creek


Beautiful Vistas!

•  single story - MLS® $119,900 USD - Reduced again!

 -  Massive, massive price reduction, to the tune of 55K! A little elevation provides a gorgeous view! Nestled into a quiet cul de sac, the view from your back patio will be spectacular! Slight upward slope and situated for a line of sight straight towards the red rocks, make this lot's location extra special. Surrounded by nice homes. All utilities available. Out of State owner wants a speedy sale. Bring offers!

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3.22 Acres, Horse Property, Fixer upper, Foreclosure


3.22 Acres- AWESOME views!

• 2,354 sq. ft., 3 bath, 4 bdrm single story "BACKS TO FOREST SERVICE" - MLS® $212,000 USD - "Reduced"

 -  MAJOR FIXER-UPPER- this is one that most would turn up there noses at, but the reward at the end will be well worth it for someone with grand vision... 3.22 acres backing to forest service-Killer Views and a 1970's bunkhouse built largely from recycled and salvage materials- huge solid heartwood beams...lumber like this just cant be found anymore... the old girls' got good bones ! Additional 744 sq ft guest house (gutted), 3180 sq ft barn, 726 sq ft mare motel, storage shed, arena and other enclosures/pasture areas/pens. Stalls for 15 critters, not zoned for that many hooves, but was once used as a horse farm... Beautiful views of pasture lands, mountains from this hilltop location. Lots of mature trees and tons of potential for a remodel. This ain't just carpet and paint folks, its a complete remodel- be prepared to re-roof, deal with dry rot, replace cabinetry and countertops, because the kitchen and baths are a cornucopia of fruit flavors...obviously, AS IS!

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Happy Jack Cabin For Sale- just reduced


"Cottage Located in the Pines"

• 1,019 sq. ft., 1 bath, 2 bdrm single story - MLS® $96,765 USD - "Just Reduced"

 -  Summer temperatures are only 6 months away- get your getaway cabin in the tall cool pines now, so you have time to make it perfect before friends and family arrive. Happy Jack is far away from everything, but close to everything those with a hankerin' for the outdoors need, want and crave. Rustic 2 bedroom/1 bath cabin with 2 car garage and storage shed, lots of mature trees on a roomy 1 acre lot. Condition is fairly good, roof looks relatively new, and there are some deferred maintenance and touch ups required.

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FANNIE MAE FORECLOSURE For Sale in Cornville- Need work, but well worth the effort!


"BREATHTAKING PANORAMIC HORSE PROPERTY"

• 2,319 sq. ft., 3 bath, 3 bdrm single story - - "COMING SOON"

 -  3 Acres of breathtaking panoramic views- completely unobstructed. Newer Santa Fe Style home with loads of custom built perks! Entertain friends and family in the gourmet kitchen...complete with granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, cook top, double oven....whew....walk in pantry, trash compactor...lets move on to the rest of the house, shall we? Great room boasts Vega and Latilla accents, built in gas fireplace and built in speaker system. Enjoy a long relaxing soak in the jetted tub after a weekend of riding horses, 4-wheelers or whatever floats your boat- trails for all are REALLY close by! Speaking of boats...park it in the extra deep three car garage! Endless possibilities and memories in the making for this one- and the price tag will help ensure you'll have plenty of time to enjoy it!!

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COMING SOON- Bank Owned Foreclosure in Lake Mary Park


"RARE FIND NESTLED IN THE PINES"

• 1,220 sq. ft., 1 bath, 3 bdrm single story ""Attic can be converted to living"" - - "COMING SOON"

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COMING SOON- Bank owned foreclosure- total fixer upper! in Lake Montezuma Hills

• 1,304 sq. ft. single story -

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BANK OWNED FORECLOSURE For Sale in Rimrock- Great condition!

• 1,364 sq. ft., 2 bath, 3 bdrm single story - - "COMING SOON"

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COMING SOON- Fannie mae Foreclosure in Firecliffe, Village of Oak Creek


"RED ROCK VIEWS"

• 2,250 sq. ft., 2 bath, 3 bdrm single story - - "COMING SOON"

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COMING SOON- Bank Owned Foreclsoure on the Verde River


"IRRIGATED HORSE PROPERTY"

• 2,843 sq. ft., 3 bath, 2 bdrm 2 story ""SEVERAL DECKS"" - - "COMING SOON"

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FANNIE MAE FORECLOSURE- Now under auction status


"PRIVACY IN THE PINES"

• 2,200 sq. ft., 2 bath, 3 bdrm 1 1/2 story - MLS® $299,900 USD - "Just Reduced"

 -  1.6 acre parcel with its OWN well. Huge RV garage, that can hold 6 cars. 2 RV spaces with full hook ups. Backs to 9.5 acres of open space for a little more privacy. Overall, condition is very good- Move right in and enjoy the peaceful pines. Master bdrm on ground level, 2nd and 3rd on second level. 3rd bedroom does not have closet and is not entirely private. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage and HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Please contact listing agent for more information. SECTION 8 OF THE AZ STATE CONTRACT SHOULD ALSO STATE: NO SPDS OR CLUE WILL BE PROVIDED. and PERSUANT TO PARAGRAPH 28 OF THE REAL ESTATE PURCHASE ADDENDUM, THIS DOCUMENT IS SUBJECT TO ALL TERMS AND CONDITIONS SET FORTH IN THE REAL ESTATE PURCHASE ADDENDUM.

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BANK OWNED FORECLSOURE For Sale in Doodlebug Knolls- FIXER UPPER


"Mini Forest Setting"

• 5,398 sq. ft., 3 bath, 3 bdrm 2 story - MLS® $403,851 USD - "Just Reduced"

 -  Call your contractor- better yet- your designer- unless, of course, you happen to have a great admiration for Disco era decor..... There is loads of potential here- Lots of outdoor living space, Lots of square footage. High Ceilings, fireplaces... Move a wall or two and see the space in a whole new light. Mature landscaping, nestled in a mini forest. Take a walk around and imagine the possibilities.

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