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Verde Valley and Sedona Real Estate Market Statistics for 2008, Real Estate Projections for 2009...

Below are real estate sales statistics for the Sedona real estate market and the Verde Valley real estate market for the calendar year 2008 (1/1/08-12/31/08).  Data was taken from the Sedona - Verde Valley Multiple Listing Service  01/23/09-02/12/09, and info regarding current listings for sale is reflected as of this date.  To compare these numbers to the first 6 months of 2008 go to  http://blog.verdevalleyrealestate.com/2008/08/06/market-update-for-the-1st-and-2nd-quarter-of-2008-for-sedona-and-the-verde-valley.aspx

HOMES

City of Cottonwood Real Estate

Currently Listed                          104
Currently Pending                          2
Sold in 08                                   108
Months supply                            11-12
Avg. Current List Price             $237,809
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $190.793
Avg. Sold Price                         $178,370
List/Sales Price %                    93.5
Chance of Sale in 2009            @100%

Verde Village Real Estate

Currently Listed                          121
Currently Pending                          2
Sold in 08                                   131
Months supply                             11
Avg. Current List Price             $190,158
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $191,935
Avg. Sold Price                         $183,774
List/Sales Price %                    95.75
Chance of Sale in 2009            @100%

Quail Run/ Springs Real Estate

Currently Listed                           21
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       6
Months supply                              42
Avg. Current List Price             $822,596
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $681,833
Avg. Sold Price                         $649,073
List/Sales Price %                    95.20
Chance of Sale in 2009            @29.2%

Bridgeport Real Estate

Currently Listed                           14
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                     14
Months supply                              12
Avg. Current List Price             $420,379
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $310,057
Avg. Sold Price                         $261,215
List/Sales Price %                    84.25
Chance of Sale in 2009            @100%

Jerome Real Estate

Currently Listed                           11
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       1
Months supply                              132
Avg. Current List Price             $460,182
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $297,000
Avg. Sold Price                         $290,000
List/Sales Price %                    97.64
Chance of Sale in 2009            @9.1%

Clarkdale Real Estate

Currently Listed                           61
Currently Pending                          1
Sold in 08                                     26
Months supply                              28
Avg. Current List Price             $304,615
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $240,723
Avg. Sold Price                         $227,392
List/Sales Price %                    94.46
Chance of Sale in 2009            @42.6%

Cornville Real Estate

Currently Listed                         133
Currently Pending                          3
Sold in 08                                     62
Months supply                              25.7
Avg. Current List Price             $393,055
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $345,359
Avg. Sold Price                         $320,556
List/Sales Price %                    92.82
Chance of Sale in 2009            @46.6%

Camp Verde Real Estate- North of I 17

Currently Listed                           23
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                     17
Months supply                              16.2
Avg. Current List Price             $381,789
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $243,129
Avg. Sold Price                         $220,871
List/Sales Price %                    90.84
Chance of Sale in 2009            @73.9

Camp Verde Real Estate

Currently Listed                           60
Currently Pending                          2
Sold in 08                                       27
Months supply                              26.6
Avg. Current List Price             $249,052
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $241,895
Avg. Sold Price                         $227,525
List/Sales Price %                    94.06
Chance of Sale in 2009            @45%

S. Camp Verde (Quarterhorse/Salt Mine)

Currently Listed                           54
Currently Pending                          1
Sold in 08                                     25
Months supply                              37.3
Avg. Current List Price             $459,307
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $401,728
Avg. Sold Price                         $368,685
List/Sales Price %                    91.77
Chance of Sale in 2009            @46.3%

Verde Lakes Real Estate

Currently Listed                           34
Currently Pending                          1
Sold in 08                                     14
Months supply                              29.1
Avg. Current List Price             $163,482
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $111,866
Avg. Sold Price                         $99,593
List/Sales Price %                    89.01
Chance of Sale in 2009            @41.2%

Rimrock Real Estate

Currently Listed                            47
Currently Pending                          1
Sold in 08                                      17
Months supply                             199.9
Avg. Current List Price             $222,804
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $157,106
Avg. Sold Price                         $150,466
List/Sales Price %                    95.77
Chance of Sale in 2009            @36.2%

Lake Montezuma Real Estate

Currently Listed                           64
Currently Pending                          1
Sold in 08                                     22
Months supply                             34.9
Avg. Current List Price             $206,503
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $184,683
Avg. Sold Price                         $172,168
List/Sales Price %                    93.22
Chance of Sale in 2009            @34.3%

Oak Creek Canyon Real Estate

Currently Listed                             4
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       4
Months supply                              12
Avg. Current List Price             $631,975
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $565,500
Avg. Sold Price                         $517,000
List/Sales Price %                    91.42
Chance of Sale in 2009            @100%

Uptown Sedona Real Estate

Currently Listed                           49
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                     22
Months supply                              26.7
Avg. Current List Price             $911,994
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $614,202
Avg. Sold Price                         $569,659
List/Sales Price %                    92.75
Chance of Sale in 2009            @44.9%


West Sedona Real Estate

Currently Listed                          208
Currently Pending                          4
Sold in 08                                   129
Months supply                             19.3
Avg. Current List Price             $810,862
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $555,016
Avg. Sold Price                         $517,878
List/Sales Price %                    93.31
Chance of Sale in 2009            @62%


Red Rock Loop/Bill Gray Road

Currently Listed                           33
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       9
Months supply                          43.9
Avg. Current List Price             $1,958,748
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $544,069
Avg. Sold Price                         $490,063
List/Sales Price %                    90.07
Chance of Sale in 2009            @27.3%


Little Horse Park (Along 179)

Currently Listed                            59
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                     29
Months supply                            24.4
Avg. Current List Price             $831,339
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $884,690
Avg. Sold Price                         $777,548
List/Sales Price %                    87.89
Chance of Sale in 2009            @49.2%

Village of Oak Creek Real Estate

Currently Listed                          132
Currently Pending                          2
Sold in 08                                     49
Months supply                             32.3
Avg. Current List Price             $382,907
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $389,173
Avg. Sold Price                         $359,233
List/Sales Price %                    92.31
Chance of Sale in 2009            @37.1%

Big Park Real Estate

Currently Listed                          145
Currently Pending                          1
Sold in 08                                     60
Months supply                             28.9
Avg. Current List Price             $810,598
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $571,200
Avg. Sold Price                         $530,423
List/Sales Price %                    92.86
Chance of Sale in 2009            @41.4%


Totals for Sedona/ Verde Valley- Homes

Currently Listed  1384
Currently Pending  21
Sold in 08  
Years supply   @1.8
Chance of sale in 2009 @19.9%

 LAND

City of Cottonwood Real Estate

Currently Listed  168
Currently Pending  1
Sold in 08   11
Months supply   183
Avg. Current List Price             $217,230
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $161,164
Avg. Sold Price                         $139,018
List/Sales Price %                    86.26
Chance of Sale in 2009            @6.5%

Verde Village Real Estate

Currently Listed                           32
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       6
Months supply                              64
Avg. Current List Price             $61,125
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $56,300
Avg. Sold Price                         $47,167
List/Sales Price %                    83.78
Chance of Sale in 2009            @18.7%

Quail Run/ Springs Real Estate

Currently Listed                           43
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       4
Months supply                              129
Avg. Current List Price             $468,620
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $190,750
Avg. Sold Price                         $168,500
List/Sales Price %                    88.34
Chance of Sale in 2009            @9.3%

Bridgeport Real Estate

Currently Listed                           12
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       4
Months supply                              36
Avg. Current List Price             $119,708
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $85,513
Avg. Sold Price                         $69,250
List/Sales Price %                    80.98
Chance of Sale in 2009            @33.3%

Jerome Real Estate

Currently Listed                              3
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       1
Months supply                              36
Avg. Current List Price             $108,000
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $89,900
Avg. Sold Price                         $70,000
List/Sales Price %                    77.86
Chance of Sale in 2009            @33%

Clarkdale Real Estate

Currently Listed                           24
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       6
Months supply                              48
Avg. Current List Price             $409,877
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $133,100
Avg. Sold Price                         $112,083
List/Sales Price %                    84.21
Chance of Sale in 2009            @25%

Cornville Real Estate

Currently Listed                          123
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                      12
Months supply                              123
Avg. Current List Price             $458,862
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $189,675
Avg. Sold Price                         $167,079
List/Sales Price %                    88.09
Chance of Sale in 2009            @9.8%

Camp Verde Real Estate - North of I-17

Currently Listed                           28
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       9
Months supply                              37.3
Avg. Current List Price             $304,400
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $164,867
Avg. Sold Price                         $154,043
List/Sales Price %                    93.44
Chance of Sale in 2009            @32.1

Camp Verde Real Estate

Currently Listed                           20
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       1
Months supply                              37.3
Avg. Current List Price             $369,782
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $349,900
Avg. Sold Price                         $325,000
List/Sales Price %                    92.88
Chance of Sale in 2009            @5%

S. Camp Verde (Quarterhorse/Salt Mine)

Currently Listed                           35
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       7
Months supply                              37.3
Avg. Current List Price             $468,246
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $119,543
Avg. Sold Price                         $99,571
List/Sales Price %                    83.29
Chance of Sale in 2009            @20%

Verde Lakes Real Estate

Currently Listed                           50
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       3
Months supply                             199.9
Avg. Current List Price             $66,633
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $44,167
Avg. Sold Price                         $38,500
List/Sales Price %                    87.17
Chance of Sale in 2009            @6%

Rimrock Real Estate

Currently Listed                          228
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       8
Months supply                             342
Avg. Current List Price             $156,926
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $95,488
Avg. Sold Price                         $78,250
List/Sales Price %                    81.95
Chance of Sale in 2009            @3.5%

Lake Montezuma Real Estate

Currently Listed                          102
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       9
Months supply                            135.9
Avg. Current List Price             $59,421
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $37,356
Avg. Sold Price                         $27,056
List/Sales Price %                    72.43
Chance of Sale in 2009            @8.8%

Oak Creek Canyon Real Estate

Currently Listed                              0
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       4
Months supply                             0
Avg. Current List Price             $0
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $648,375
Avg. Sold Price                         $497,000
List/Sales Price %                    76.65
Chance of Sale in 2009            @100%

Uptown Sedona Real Estate

Currently Listed                           30
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       7
Months supply                             51.4
Avg. Current List Price             $1,135,077
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $326,786
Avg. Sold Price                         $312,500
List/Sales Price %                    95.63
Chance of Sale in 2009            @23.3%


West Sedona Real Estate

Currently Listed                          161
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                     15
Months supply                            128.8
Avg. Current List Price             $522,500
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $551,580
Avg. Sold Price                         $500,300
List/Sales Price %                    90.70
Chance of Sale in 2009            @9.3%


Red Rock Loop/ Billy Gray Road

Currently Listed                         110
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                     10
Months supply                           132
Avg. Current List Price             $1,288,962
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $629,585
Avg. Sold Price                         $499,088
List/Sales Price %                    79.27
Chance of Sale in 2009            @9.1%


Little Horse Park (Along 179)

Currently Listed                            45
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       8
Months supply                             67.5
Avg. Current List Price             $478,228
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $491,675
Avg. Sold Price                         $374,913
List/Sales Price %                    76.25
Chance of Sale in 2009            @17.8%

Village of Oak Creek Real Estate

Currently Listed                           33
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                       2
Months supply                             198
Avg. Current List Price             $217,121
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $267,250
Avg. Sold Price                         $238,500
List/Sales Price %                    89.24
Chance of Sale in 2009            @6.1%

Big Park Real Estate

Currently Listed                           86
Currently Pending                          0
Sold in 08                                     14
Months supply                             73.7
Avg. Current List Price             $429,832
Avg. List Price- Sold Listings  $388,611
Avg. Sold Price                         $350,454
List/Sales Price %                    90.18
Chance of Sale in 2009            @16.3%


Totals for Sedona/ Verde Valley- Land

Currently Listed  1349
Currently Pending  1
Sold in 08   143
Years supply   @9.4
Chance of sale in 2009 @10.6%

Real estate sellers in Sedona and the Verde Valley will continue to face a very tough market in 2009, due to a steady stream of foreclosures and an overall lackluster market.  However, prices are attracting more buyers into the market and we are beginning to see multiple offers and price wars on certain well priced listings. 

A home in Verde Village a few days ago was bid up 20% over its asking price  A property in the City of Cottowood experienced the same phenomena.  A listing of ours in the City of Cottonwood just received an offer after a market time of only 10 days.  These are things we expect in a sellers market-  which indicates the tide may be finally be starting to turn in these markets.  While a one year supply of homes is still considered an oversupply ( a"normal" market is a 4-6 month supply),  the supply of homes in these two markets has dropped considerably in the second half of 08.

The 4th quarter of 2008 saw 222 sales in the area, however, over 25% of these sales were foreclosures.  Currently, 48% of the 124 pending contracts in the Verde Valley are foreclosure homes.Inventory of available properties also dropped in the 4th quarter from about 3200 listings, to a current 2840 listings.  We do expect this number to spike up again in the Spring, as many sellers take their homes off the market for the holidays, or wait until Spring to list.  Here is how the 4th quarter and 2008 stack up to the past few years.

Quarter   Year          No# of Sales

1st qtr  2006            567 closed sales
2nd qtr 2006            570 closed sales
3rd qtr  2006            561 closed sales
4th qtr  2006            358 closed sales
1st qtr  2007            314 closed sales
2nd qtr 2007            406 closed sales
3rd qtr  2007            304 closed sales
4th qtr  2007            234 closed sales
1st qtr  2008            203 closed sales
2nd qtr 2008            280 closed sales
3rd qtr  2008            242 closed sales
4th qtr  2008            222 closed sales


Year     # of Sales        Dollar Volume

1996     1687              197,283,896
1997     1809              248,524,298
1998     1967              282,799,572
1999     2052              325,126,110
2000     2127              388,386,493
2001     2043              378,680,420
2002     2244              440,312,261
2003     2624              593,724,521
2004     3175              782,270,183
2005     3121              968,669,048
2006     1972              740,066,355
2007     1261              458,545,123
2008       952              310,587,417


The market in the Verde Valley will begin to feel more normal when we hit an average of 400-500 sales per year in the Sedona/ Verde Valley market area.

Verde Valley and Sedona real estate agents had a very tough year in 2008.  In fact, we lost about 100 over the past calendar year-  1/2 of those were in January 09, when annual dues to our MLS service are to be paid.  We now have 636 agents working in the valley.  That is still way too many-  636 agents handling 952 sales means an average of 1.49 sales per agent, per year. or 48,610 dollars in sales per agent- about 1500 bucks in commissions- before their split with a broker.  I cant understand why so many of the "dabblers"  continue to hold a license.

Real estate is a business where 10% of the people, make 90%, and that is especially true in difficult markets.  Out of the 700 or so real estate agents that worked in Sedona and the Verde Valley in 2008, only 417 did one or more deal-  over 250 of them failed to record a sale in the MLS-  which means over 1/3 of our area agents sold nothing in 2008!  Out of the 417 who managed to do a deal, 124 area real estate agents only did one deal for the entire year.  80 agents only sold 2 properties, 317 agent sold 5 or fewer properties, leaving 100 area agents who sold 5 or more properties during 2008.  50 agents managed to sell 10 or more properties.  10 agents managed to sell 20 or more properties.  We were fortunate enough to be in this group.

If you are selling real estate in the Verde Valley in 2009, you would be very wise to chose your agent very carefully, and then listen to his or her advice regarding pricing, repairs etc.  Same goes if you are buying real estate in 2009.  Chose your agent carefully and go out and negotiate a killer deal.  Prices have dropped 20-50 percent throughout the Verde Valley-  find an agent who know how to help you spend your money wisely!
Holly Grigaitis-Svercl
Ken Svercl
Mingus Mountain Real Estate
holly@verdevalleyrealestate.com
928-300-5228
Posted: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 3:52 PM by Holly Grigaitis

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