2009-2010 Sedona/ Verde Valley Real Estate Market Update: Short Sale Explosion Ahead
I know it has been a long time since I have written a market update, or a newsletter for that matter! Truth be told, Ken and I have been absolutely inundated with foreclosure/REO listings and sales.... And since, nearly ALL REO business is done on-line, we have literally eaten nearly every meal in front of the computer screen for the last 12 months. Crazy, crazy times- what a wonderfully, horrible problem to have (Read: Were hiring!). But we do have much news to share with you now and in the coming months- so be on the lookout for updates to our blog, and updates in your mailbox.
As you may already know, 2009 was a mixed year for area real estate: To sum it up, sales were up a little, and prices were down a lot!. Here's a quick snap shot of the activity in our area for the past several years.
Year # of Sales Dollar Volume
1996 1687 197,283,896
1997 1809 248,524,298
1998 1967 282,799,572
1999 2052 325,126,110
2000 2127 388,386,493
2001 2043 378,680,420
2002 2244 440,312,261
2003 2624 593,724,521
2004 3175 782,270,183
2005 3121 968,669,048
2006 1972 740,066,355
2007 1261 458,545,123
2008 952 310,587,417
2009 1192 328,421,118
Sedon Verde Valley Sales by Quarter 2006-Current
1st quarter 2006 567 closed sales
2nd quarter 2006 570 closed sales
3rd quarter 2006 561 closed sales
4th quarter 2006 358 closed sales
1st quarter 2007 314 closed sales
2nd quarter 2007 406 closed sales
3rd quarter 2007 304 closed sales
4th quarter 2007 234 closed sales
1st quarter 2008 203 closed sales
2nd quarter 2008 280 closed sales
3rd quarter 2008 242 closed sales
4th quarter 2008 222 closed sales
1st quarter 2009 180 closed sales 2nd quarter 2009 333 closed sales 3rd quarter 2009 337 closed sales 4th quarter 2009 347 closed sales 1st quarter 2010 346 closed sales
What’s important to note here is that while sales were up significantly in 2009, we are still not even close to “pre-bubble” activity, and no where near what would be considered normal activity for our area, but at least we are FINALLY heading in the right direction.
I began my real estate career in late 1997. The market was considered to be “normal” at that time– Agents counseled buyers to plan on owning their home for at LEAST 3-5 years before they would be able to resell and BREAK EVEN. Just a few short years later, real estate owners became day traders as low interest loans and easy qualification fueled a drunken party of reckless investing, and unsustainable appreciation - what a long, strange trip its been.
Out of the 1192 sales that occurred in Sedona and The Verde Valley in 2009, 1038 were home sales (of this, 530 were distressed sales: 438 Foreclosures, 92 Short Sales)138 (of this, 48 Were distress sales: 45 Foreclosures 3 Short Sales) were land sales and a whopping 16 commercial sales occurred during the calendar year in the Verde Valley. If you have real estate to sell in the Verde Valley, you better hope it has a HOUSE on it, and know that half of your competition is a home in distress!
Finally it would appear as if our nation’s financial system ( Read: Wall Street) has some semblance of stability once again- 14 months ago, the economy was literally teetering on the edge of a great abyss, but large injections of cash from the Fed were the paddles that shocked the system, and brought it back from seeing the great white light. Whether you agree with the bailout or not, the landscape today would certainly be a lot different without it.
Credit has loosened- yes, it has. Banks want to lend, they are just not finding enough credit-worthy individuals! Before you chortle, remember, it was only 10 short years ago when you HAD to have 2 years of consistent job history, good credit history AND a low debt to income ratios to buy a house…. We have all been severely spoiled the last decade with banks doling out loans like drugs to an addict.
The National economy is slowly recovering and Arizona’s economy and real estate market will slowly recover as well, but while the country sees a more measurable improvement, AZ and a few other states will lag far behind and suffer a much longer convalescence. Here’s why.
Arizona, along with CA, NV, FL are among 5 states that are responsible for 60% of the nation’s foreclosures- we can expect foreclosures to be in the forefront of the marketplace through 2011, and likely, beyond. There are currently about 1200 foreclosures scheduled to occur in Yavapai County in the next 90 days alone,. That’s on top of the 1700+ foreclosures that are currently on the market, or will be very soon.
Arizona went from number 2 in the Nation in job creation in 2005-2006, to 50th in 2009. Ohio and Michigan are creating more jobs than AZ! As a result, retail sales in AZ dropped a whopping 14% from 2008 to 2009, and an unbelievable total of 25% since the start of the recession. Construction permits in Maricopa County are down 92.8%, and not too far off that number in Yavapai County- Yavapai County issued 604 residential single family building permits in 2008 ( numbers are not yet available for 2009) – 4329 were issued in 2005, 3665 in 2004 .
Relocation to the state is down. As retirees across the nation have faced dwindling home equity and depleted 401K’s, Arizona has lost her steady stream of new residents. Growth, which was still a healthy 3.1% in 2007, has dwindled to about 1.3%- AZ typically experiences about a 1% growth rate when we look only at births vs. deaths.
Everywhere the Arizona economy was strong: Semiconductors, Construction, Tourism and Retirement/relocation, got slaughtered during the downturn, and it will likely be a few more years before we really notice a true recovery- People need to move here again. Distressed inventory AND excess inventory needs to be sold and cleared out of the pipeline.
So, have we seen a change in 2010? Not yet. As of 5/23, our local association has closed 566 deals- We are right on track to finish the year with a number of sales equal to 2009 numbers, but whether we will meet, beat or lag behind of last years sales in the area, will depend largely on the fall out from the expiration of the tax credit, which may have “robbed” sales from the 3rd and 4th quarter. It is still just too early to tell what impact the tax credit will have had on this years numbers.
There is, however, a HUGE change in the national marketplace that is already in the wind and gaining steam with an amazing pace, and, it has the potential to help stabilize markets across the country much quicker than previously expected. Thanks to some serious arm twisting of the Fed in the form of HAFA (Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives) and other changes in the marketplace, the banks are FINALLY starting to realize it is in their best interest to begin cooperating with homeowners who are upside down or in distress and accept Short Sales and Deeds in Lieu, rather than foreclosing. Yes, really! Homeowners may now be able to do a short sale or a deed in lieu WITHOUT destroying their credit. Yes really! It may now be possible for investors to do short sales! Yes, really! You might be able to do a short sale and BUY a new home the very NEXT DAY! Yes, really!!!!!!!
If you are underwater on your mortgage, or you know someone who is, please get in touch with us so we can help take advantage of new bank philosophies and policies or, be sure to catch future updates from us in the mail or on our blog!